For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles.
Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing
through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development,
this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the
Lesser Antilles during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
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